Preparing for Global Warming Induced Flooding in the Vistula Delta Region

The Vistula Delta Think Tank are group of students at STO3 community school for boys and girls who want to know more about the possibility of the Vistula Delta flooding due to global warming. It is our plan to carry out research and investigate the possibility of this phenomena. The Think Tank will look into rising sea levels in the Baltic to determine how much the sea level can be expected to rise over the next 100 years. Further, scientists, politicians, policy-makers will be asked for their opinions on how to resolve this problem. At present sea level is rising at 3mm per year and this rate is accelerating. 

      The Vistula Delta:  Year 2000.   Click on picture to enlarge

In 100 years time it is expected that the sea level will have risen by about 1 meter. The impacts of flooding could be huge. Dead animals, the evacuation of many people and the river silting up will be just a few of the problems experienced. If we want to reduce the impacts we will have to be ready for the flooding. Dikes, levees and sea walls will have to be built. If such measures aren’t taken tourism will drop off in Gdansk. Part of the reason for this will be because all the beaches, and some of the old town will be under water. 

                                                                                    The Vistula Delta:  Year 2100     Click on picture to enlarge

27th February 2009: A research party from VISTULADELTA.COM went on a fact finding mission to the Institute of Hydro-Engineering. A very informative meeting was held with Professor Zbigniew Pruszak, who is the co-author of the scientific paper “Potential Implications of Sea-Level Rise for Poland”. In his view, very careful monitoring of the impacts of flooding should be carried out. He estimated that about US$30 billion worth of damage due to sea-level rise will occur if the problem is not addressed

Due to the global rise in sea level, action will have to be taken to prevent flooding along the Vistula delta region. Further research will need to be carried out  to determine the effectiveness of the following preventative actions.

Building and extending dikes and sea walls

Reducing Carbon Dioxide emissions into the atmosphere

Propagating information to the public and those with interests in the Vistula delta about the predicted flooding of this region

In March 2009, Scientists at a the climate change summit in Copenhagen said that sea levels could rise by a metre or more by 2100. These projections are more than the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) estimated previously because they’re calculations initially only took into account the oceans thermal expansion and did not include the potential impact of polar melting and ice breaking off.

The IPCC, in its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, had said that the maximum rise in sea level would be in the region of 59cm but new studies into ice loss in Greenland, have shown that it has accelerated over the last decade. One metre is three times more than the average predicted by the IPCC." As a result of the acceleration of outlet glaciers over large regions, the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are already contributing more and faster to sea level rise than anticipated. It is expect that sea level rise will accelerate as the planet gets hotter.

The forecasts by the team of scientists are critically important for the Vistula Delta Region. Even small rises in sea level could be overwhelming. A sea level rise 10cm below the height of the defences will not be a problem but if it's 10cm above the defences, then we could be looking at the Baltic Sea devastating large areas of North Poland.